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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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AGGREGATE SUPPLY INCREASE, SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE MARKET:

A shock to the short-run aggregate market caused by an increase in aggregate supply, resulting in and illustrated by a rightward shift of the short-run aggregate supply curve. An increase in aggregate supply in the short-run aggregate market results in a decrease in the price level and an increase in real production. The level of real production resulting from the shock can be greater or less than full-employment real production.
While a wide range of specific aggregate supply determinants can cause an increase in aggregate supply, the following rank among the more important:
  • Growth of the population or an increase in the labor force participation rate, both of which increase the quantity of labor available for production.

  • Investment in capital goods prompted by lower interest rates, lower capital good prices, or technological advances, which increases the quantity of capital available for production.

  • The discovery of new mineral deposits or fossil fuels, both of which increase the quantity of land resources available for production.

  • An increase in education which increases the quality of labor resources.

  • An increase in technology which increases the quality of capital resources.

  • A reduction in wages or energy prices, both of which reduce economy-wide production cost.
Supply Increase
Short-Run Aggregate Market
Short-Run Aggregate Market
The short-run aggregate market presented in the graph to the right sets the stage for analyzing the effect of an increase in aggregate supply resulting from a change in any aggregate supply determinant. The vertical axis measures the price level (GDP price deflator) and the horizontal axis measures real production (real GDP). The negatively-sloped curve, labeled AD, is the aggregate demand curve and the positively-sloped curve, labeled SRAS, is the short-run aggregate supply curve. The current short-run equilibrium, found at the intersection of the AD and SRAS curves, is a price level of 10 and real production of $100 billion.

Consider what happens to this short-run aggregate market with an increase in aggregate supply. Suppose, for example, that changing customs and attitudes leads to an increase in the female labor force participation rate. This increases the total quantity of labor available for production. The result of this is a rightward shift of the SRAS curve. Click the [SRAS Increase] button to illustrate.

The result of this rightward SRAS curve shift is that a new short-run equilibrium is achieved at a lower price level (9) and a larger amount of real production ($110 billion). This result is comparable to that for a standard market. An increase in market supply results in a lower equilibrium price and a larger equilibrium quantity. The key difference, of course, is that this "market" is the aggregate product market for the entire economy and not the market for a specific good.

A comparative static analysis of the original equilibrium and the new equilibrium is useful and important. However, it is also instructive to dissect the adjustment process.

  • First, the SRAS curve shifts rightward due to the increase in the quantity of labor induced by the increase in the female labor force participation rate. This "extra" aggregate supply creates an imbalance in the aggregate market. At the existing price level (which has NOT yet changed), buyers are willing and able to buy only $100 billion worth of real production. Producers, however, are now willing and able to sell more, something like $120 billion worth of real production. This creates economy-wide product market surpluses.

  • Second, motivated by a build-up of inventories created by economy-wide product market surpluses, producers decrease production. In the short run they do so by reducing the employment of resources, especially labor. While resource prices do NOT decline enough to maintain full employment, the reduction in real production does lead to a decline in production cost which causes product prices and the price level to fall.

  • Third, with the falling price level buyers are induced to increase aggregate expenditures. The combination of producers decreasing real production and buyers increasing aggregate expenditures act to reduce the existing economy-wide product market surpluses. In fact, as long as economy-wide product market surpluses persist producers decrease production, which causes the price level to fall, which increases aggregate expenditures. Eventually the falling real production and rising aggregate expenditures meet at the new short-run equilibrium price level of 9 and real production of $110 billion.

<= AGGREGATE SUPPLY INCREASE, LONG-RUN AGGREGATE MARKETAGGREGATE SUPPLY SHIFTS =>


Recommended Citation:

AGGREGATE SUPPLY INCREASE, SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE MARKET, AmosWEB Encyclonomic WEB*pedia, http://www.AmosWEB.com, AmosWEB LLC, 2000-2024. [Accessed: May 13, 2024].


Check Out These Related Terms...

     | aggregate market shocks | aggregate demand increase, short-run aggregate market | aggregate demand decrease, short-run aggregate market | aggregate supply decrease, short-run aggregate market | aggregate demand decrease, long-run aggregate market | aggregate demand increase, long-run aggregate market | aggregate supply decrease, long-run aggregate market | aggregate supply increase, long-run aggregate market |


Or For A Little Background...

     | aggregate market | aggregate market analysis | short-run aggregate market | equilibrium, aggregate market | equilibrium, short-run aggregate market | aggregate demand | aggregate supply | aggregate expenditures | short-run aggregate supply | aggregate demand curve | short-run aggregate supply curve | price level | GDP price deflator | real gross domestic product | market adjustment | supply shock |


And For Further Study...

     | disequilibrium, aggregate market | disequilibrium, short-run aggregate market | output gaps | self correction, aggregate market | self correction, recessionary gap | self correction, inflationary gap | Keynesian economics | monetary economics | classical economics |


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